Finding a new equilibrium
Dominic Carman
In competing for local talent and international clients, the dynamic Irish legal market is increasingly Darwinian: the strongest firms will survive and thrive
Ireland is in a state of flux. On the one hand, most economic forecasts are upbeat: GDP growth is anticipated to rise by 1.2% in 2024 and 3.6% in 2025, supported by an improvement in global trade, falling inflation and a strong labour market, according to the European Commission’s latest quarterly projection. Last month, Moody’s upgraded Ireland’s economic outlook from ‘stable’ to ‘positive’, citing the country’s strong growth potential, robust institutional framework, and proven resilience to external shocks as key determinants of its economic outlook with a Aa3 long term debt rating, described by Moody’s as “high quality and very low credit risk”. In September, Sir Keir Starmer became the first British prime minister to visit Ireland in five years, aiming to “reset relations” between the two countries. He held talks with the Irish taoiseach (prime minister), Simon Harris, who was elected in April, three months before his British counterpart. “Céad Míle Fáilte”, Harris told Starmer, explaining that this Gaelic greeting means “a hundred thousand welcomes”. Such greetings have been liberally extended by Ireland Inc., both to international businesses and to newly arrived international law firms aiming to serve them. Following successive waves of FDI over several decades, Ireland has seen an accelerating tide of law firms opening in Dublin targeting multinational clients in the Irish market and beyond.
But on the other hand, political certainty – upon which the rationale for that FDI was partly predicated –
has diminished. At least for now. It has given way to uncertainty since the 2020 general election when an unprecedented three-party coalition government was formed to exclude Sinn Féin, after the nationalist party secured the highest number of votes and almost a quarter of the seats in the Irish parliament. Although the Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil-Green government has held firm demonstrating a united front, the outcome of the next election, which must take place in the next six months, remains far from clear.
Another historic advantage, Ireland’s benign corporate tax regime which facilitated so much FDI, continues to generate headlines that may cause embarrassment. Having had its European HQ based in Cork since 1980, Apple was recently ordered to pay Ireland €13bn in unpaid taxes by the European Court of Justice (ECJ). It leaves the Irish government with a windfall that equates to roughly 14% of total annual public spending – substantial revenue it fought hard to avoid. The ECJ’s ruling relates to a 2016 case in which the EU’s competition chief Margrethe Vestager argued that Ireland had breached state aid rules by giving Apple an illegal sweetheart deal, providing the iPhone maker with an unfair advantage. In response to the ECJ decision, Ireland’s finance ministry said: “The Irish position has always been that Ireland does not give preferential tax treatment to any companies or taxpayers.” Leading up to the Irish budget on October 1, debate continues to rage about how the windfall should be used. The most common suggestion is to help alleviate the housing crisis: the country’s most acute political issue. Harris has said that his government will reflect “for a brief period” before deciding what to do with the money.
In this report, twenty law firm leaders in Dublin share their thoughts on their firms and the challenges facing them, as the market reaches a new equilibrium with new office openings increasingly scarce. They range from the traditional local elite and well-established international firms, as well as a cluster of newer market entrants who have been developing their business with varying degrees of success. Most new arrivals tend to focus on specific practice areas; some have broader ambitions. All of them are, of course, ambitious – and keen to explain what is keeping them busy, and how they are positioning themselves to compete.
