Election imminent: housing dominates
Dominic Carman
Dublin law firm leaders share their thoughts on Irish politics: Simon Harris as Taoiseach, a faltering Sinn Féin, and challenges facing the coalition government
Political stability has long been a hallmark of Ireland, and a key pillar of its economic success over the past thirty years. Between them, the centrist Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael parties have led every Irish government for more than a century. But the Irish general election of February 2020 led to four months of negotiation by three parties: the resulting coalition was described by the Irish Times as ‘a moment of exceptional national unity.’ Although the traditional duopoly of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael joined forces for the first time, they still had to reach a deal with the Green Party in order to achieve a working majority in Ireland’s parliament (the Dáil). This was deemed necessary to uphold the cordon sanitaire around Sinn Féin, thereby excluding the nationalist party from government: the former political wing of the Irish Republican Army narrowly won the popular vote in 2020, securing 37 out of 160 seats in the Dáil – one less than Fianna Fáil and two more than Fine Gael. The balance of support went to several smaller parties and, most notably, Independents who, after gaining 21 seats, now look like a permanent feature in Ireland’s fragmented political landscape.
The next Irish general election, which must be held by no later than March 2025, might deliver a different result, potentially allowing Sinn Féin to enter into another coalition government. By early 2024, Ireland was psychologically prepared for that reality. However, the European and local elections held in June 2024 saw Sinn Féin fall short of expectations – and opinion poll predictions – as events moved against them. The latest polls show that its support has halved – from 35% to 18% – since October 2022. Irish law firms are keen observers of the domestic political scene – they have to be. The unprecedented, arguably seismic political shift in 2020 makes the outcome of the next election both more unpredictable and more important, particularly for their clients who seek stability, predictability, and consistency above all else.
